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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 020530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST WED JAN 01 2014 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TURNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY...BUT PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE NEAR A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A REINFORCING INTRUSION OF COLD AIR...NOW SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS...WHICH PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ...FLORIDA... EVEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS SEASONABLY HIGH ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY STILL SEEMS LIMITED. WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ALREADY DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...WITH THE RAPID REFRESH AND ECMWF SUGGESTIVE OF SPEEDS AS STRONG AS 40-50 KT EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...BY THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING OF MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS...JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT...WITH AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ..KERR/GARNER.. 01/02/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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