Jan 2, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 2 12:57:32 UTC 2014 (20140102 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140102 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140102 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140102 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140102 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140102 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 021253

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 AM CST THU JAN 02 2014

   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   THE PHASING OF TWO WAVES ALOFT WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER THE OH/TN
   VALLEY REGION.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF NRN KY AS OF 12Z
   WILL REFORM E OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS VA/NC LATER TODAY...AND
   THEN DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NEWD WELL OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
   OVERNIGHT.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD FROM MS
   THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL FL BY TONIGHT.  S OF A PRE-EXISTING
   BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS N FL AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   INCREASING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.  DESPITE RATHER MODEST LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT...MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED.

   MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL TEND TO
   BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PASSES N OF FL TONIGHT.  THE WAVE PASSAGE TO THE N OF FL WILL ALSO
   RESULT IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AFTER
   ABOUT 03Z.  THUS...THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
   ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH EITHER CONVECTION FORMING ALONG
   THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...OR AS CONVECTION
   SPREADS INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS
   EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.

   ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 01/02/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z