Jan 2, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 2 16:23:32 UTC 2014 (20140102 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140102 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140102 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140102 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140102 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140102 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 021619

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CST THU JAN 02 2014

   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...FL...
   DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE FL
   PENINSULA...WHILE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE OH/TN
   VALLEYS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
   OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE A MOIST AND
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL LATER TODAY.
    FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION...BUT WEAK FORCING/LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  THE STRONGEST CELLS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING
   WINDS.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 01/02/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z