Jan 2, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 2 19:44:32 UTC 2014 (20140102 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140102 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140102 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140102 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140102 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140102 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 021940

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014

   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK EXCEPT TO FIT LINES TO THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION. CONTINUED HEATING AND STRONG WIND
   FIELDS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR.

   ..JEWELL.. 01/02/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST THU JAN 02 2014/

   ...FL...
   DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE FL
   PENINSULA...WHILE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE OH/TN
   VALLEYS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
   OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE A MOIST AND
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL LATER TODAY.
    FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION...BUT WEAK FORCING/LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  THE STRONGEST CELLS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING
   WINDS.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z