Jan 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 4 05:44:30 UTC 2014 (20140104 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140104 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140104 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140104 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140104 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140104 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040540

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CST FRI JAN 03 2014

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS NOW UNDERWAY...AND MODELS
   INDICATE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
   INCLUDES THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A POLAR VORTEX ACROSS CENTRAL
   CANADA TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL INTO EASTERN U.S. LATER THIS WEEKEND.  AT LEAST FOR
   TODAY...HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
   NORTH OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...JUST EAST OF THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  

   THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
   AT LOW-LEVELS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION ACROSS
   THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD
   INTRUSION...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SURGING
   SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   REGION.  HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIVE NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES
   APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHWESTERN
   ATLANTIC.  PERHAPS AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN
   AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND COULD IMPACT AT LEAST
   THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL AREAS. 
   OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
   LOW.

   ..KERR/GARNER.. 01/04/2014

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