Jan 4, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 4 12:53:31 UTC 2014 (20140104 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140104 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140104 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140104 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140104 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140104 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 041249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 AM CST SAT JAN 04 2014

   VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN OVER CONUS IS FCST TO AMPLIFY...WITH
   INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER BROAD SWATH FROM PAC NW AND
   ROCKIES TO OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY END OF PERIOD.  THIS WILL
   SUPPORT SEWD PLUNGE OF SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EVIDENT FROM LS TO
   S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- INTO ALREADY LOW-THETAE AIR MASS PREVALENT
   BEHIND PRIOR FROPA.  BY END OF PERIOD...THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH
   LH...ERN/SRN IL...SERN OK...AND S-CENTRAL TX.  RETURN FLOW WITHIN
   MOST OF WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
   MOISTURE-DEFICIENT AND STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER U.S. MAINLAND.  

   ...ERN GULF...FL KEYS REGION...
   OLDER SFC FRONT...NOW QUASISTATIONARY...IS EVIDENT IN AVAILABLE SFC
   DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ATLC WATERS JUST S OF BUOY 41047
   WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WRN CUBA AND EXTREME NWRN CARIBBEAN.
    ALOFT...MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES POSITIVELY TILTED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN GULF W AND N OF YUCATAN
   PENINSULA...AND CONSIDERABLE DIFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM.  SFC FRONT MAY
   RETURN NWD WITH APCH OF MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY AND
   WITH SLOW/ERRATIC PACE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING PRECIP TO ITS
   N.  INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME TSTMS...ALREADY
   IS EVIDENT OVER NWRN CARIBBEAN AND WRN STRAITS OF FL.  INITIALLY
   UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 12Z EYW RAOB
   NONETHELESS WAS MUCH MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT THAN IN 00Z SOUNDING. 

   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM OVER THESE AREAS AND GRADUALLY
   SHIFT/SPREAD NEWD AS 
   1. LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC/FRONTAL ASCENT TO LFC OCCURS...AND 
   2. DEEP-LAYER MEAN LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE FROM
   COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE COOLING ALOFT.

   ..EDWARDS.. 01/04/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z