Jan 4, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 4 16:22:31 UTC 2014 (20140104 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140104 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140104 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140104 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140104 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140104 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 041618

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CST SAT JAN 04 2014

   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE
   PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW/ MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG TOWARDS THE NRN
   PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD THROUGH THE LWR MO VALLEY
   AND INTO WRN OK. APPROACHING CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE WILL FAVOR A
   CONTINUED SEWD PUSH OF THIS FRONT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO
   EXTEND FROM SRN LWR MI SEWD INTO CNTRL TX. SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS TX COASTAL BEND INTO E TX BUT WARM TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
   CONTINUE SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...PULLING AN
   ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE N-CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. 

   ...FAR S FL/FL KEYS...
   AT LEAST SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR S FL/FL
   KEYS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE
   ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
   INTO THE MID-60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED
   WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING
   LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   /JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 16Z/ SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DESPITE GENERALLY POOR LAPSE
   RATES.

   ..MOSIER/WEISS.. 01/04/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z