Jan 5, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 5 00:40:32 UTC 2014 (20140105 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140105 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140105 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140105 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140105 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140105 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050033

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2014

   VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
   NEARLY ALL OF THE COUNTRY BY 05/12Z.  AS THE TROUGH DIGS...VERY COLD
   AIR WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL U.S. --
   WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ARCTIC SURGE PROGGED
   TO EXTEND FROM THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS SWWD TO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
   LATE.

   WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN
   ATLANTIC AND COLD DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY.  AN EXCEPTION
   WILL BE ACROSS FAR S FL AND THE KEYS...WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING.  CONVECTION MAY SPREAD NWD TO NEAR THE
   CAROLINA COAST LATE...BUT ATTM ANY ONSHORE LIGHTNING RISK APPEARS TO
   LOW TO WARRANT AREAL INCLUSION.

   ..GOSS.. 01/05/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z