Jan 5, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 5 05:45:35 UTC 2014 (20140105 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140105 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140105 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140105 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140105 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140105 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050542

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
   U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FIELD OF CYCLONIC FLOW
   SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.  

   AS THIS OCCURS...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SPREAD
   RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CONUS...AS A LOW DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING RAPIDLY
   NEWD.  AS THE LOW RACES FROM THE AR VICINITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
   THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY OF ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC LATE...THE TRAILING
   COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC SURGE SHOULD REACH THE
   NRN AND WRN GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE ATLANTIC
   COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   THOUGH LITTLE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
   ADVANCES...SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE
   CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC.  THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
   MINIMAL/INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK...SHOWERS AND
   EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST
   HALF OF THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 01/05/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z