Jan 5, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 5 12:35:33 UTC 2014 (20140105 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140105 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140105 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140105 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140105 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140105 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 051231

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2014

   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...POLAR VORTEX WITH WSW-ENE ORIENTED CORE-FLOW
   REGION HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER CANADA BETWEEN SERN SK AND NWRN
   ONT...WHILE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH
   PERIPHERAL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER PORTIONS OK AND NW TX.  WRN LOBE OF
   CYCLONE IS FCST TO PIVOT SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS THEN EWD OVER UPPER MS
   VALLEY THROUGH PERIOD.  BY 12Z...NET RESULT WILL BE MERIDIONALLY
   ELONGATED CYCLONE WITH TWO MAIN CENTERS -- OVER WI AND OVER FAR NWRN
   ONT JUST S OF HUDSON BAY.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD
   ACROSS IL AROUND 00Z THEN REACH SRN ONT BY END OF PERIOD.  BY THAT
   TIME...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER ALMOST ALL OF CONUS FROM
   ROCKIES EWD.

   AT SFC...INITIALLY WEAK/FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER NRN
   AR...WITH ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD NEAR SERN TIP OF OK TO
   S-CENTRAL TX...APCHG SAT.  SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE
   NEWD ACROSS OH AROUND 00Z...THEN CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
   CROSSES SRN ONT OVERNIGHT AND REACHES SWRN QUE BY 12Z.  COLD FRONT
   WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS NRN/WRN GULF...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND
   MUCH OF DIXIE.  BY 12Z..FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW SWD ACROSS
   NY...CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...SERN GA AND FL COASTAL BEND REGION INTO
   CENTRAL GULF.  

   ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN ZONE OF
   STG LOW-LEVEL WAA...MRGL MOISTURE...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC. 
   ABOVE THAT LFC...FCST SOUNDINGS FROM RAPID REFRESH MODEL HAVE BEEN
   DEPICTING THIS SITUATION WELL WITH 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED IN
   SATURATED LAYER AROUND 750-800 MB.  EPISODIC LTG ACTIVITY IS
   POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING NEWD TOWARD LOWER
   OH VALLEY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL THAT REGIME OUTRUNS MOST
   SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL THETAE.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S THROUGH AFTN...MOSTLY JUST AHEAD
   OF SFC FRONT IN CHANNEL OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. 
   THIS ACTIVITY LIKEWISE SHOULD BE TEMPORALLY SPORADIC AND SUPPORTED
   BY 100-200 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. 

   ...ATLC COASTAL STATES...
   SEPARATE CONVEYOR OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW BEING
   DETECTED OVER GULF STREAM...OFFSHORE NRN FL/GA.  THIS REGIME IS
   EXPECTED TO SHIFT NNEWD OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS AND NEARBY
   COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS.  BY LATE AFTN AND EVENING...MORE
   CONVECTIVELY MRGL LIMB OF CONVEYOR WILL EXTEND NWD AHEAD OF FRONT
   AND ACROSS DELMARVA/MID-ATLC REGIONS...SHIFTING EWD OVER SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT LLJ.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   WEAK ALOFT...SUFFICIENT THETAE MAY BE ATTAINED IN LAYER OF STRONGEST
   ISENTROPIC LIFT...700-850 MB...TO YIELD 100-300 J/KG ELEVATED
   MUCAPE.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THAT BUOYANCY MAY REACH INTO
   THERMAL LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR LTG PRODUCTION.

   ..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 01/05/2014

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