Jan 5, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 5 20:14:30 UTC 2014 (20140105 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140105 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140105 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140105 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140105 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140105 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 052010

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CST SUN JAN 05 2014

   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ISOLATED WEAK
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN FL WILL DWINDLE TOWARD SUNSET...WHILE
   STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PRODUCES ENOUGH
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER N INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

   ..JEWELL.. 01/05/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER CNTRL NOAM AS
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER MO GRADUALLY PHASES WITH STRONGER
   DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
   CONTINUED BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF DEEP SWLY FLOW OVER THE ERN
   THIRD OF THE U.S. FARTHER SE...SEPARATE...HIGHER-LEVEL SRN STREAM
   IMPULSE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NEWD...GLANCING THE S AND MID
   ATLANTIC CSTS.

   AT LWR LVLS...SFC WAVE NOW DEVELOPING OVER NRN AR SHOULD SOMEWHAT
   DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES NEWD TO NEAR CINCINNATI THIS EVE. BUT MORE
   SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE FEATURE IS MORE
   DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY THE DAKOTAS TROUGH AND THE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR
   TORONTO EARLY MON. LOW-LVL WAA WILL APPRECIABLY STRENGTHEN OVER A
   LARGE REGION E AND N OF THE WAVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH VLY AND
   MID/N ATLANTIC. 
    
   ...ERN CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN/TNGT...
   SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS...WITHIN
   DEEP MOIST/WEAKLY CONFLUENT REGIME ON NWRN FRINGE OF HIGH-LVL
   DISTURBANCE GLANCING THE S ATLANTIC CST. THE STRONGEST ZONE OF
   ASCENT SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD TO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THE ADJACENT CSTL
   WATERS LATER TODAY...AND TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLC REGION BY
   EVE/TNGT...AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING
   MIDWESTERN TROUGH.

   ALTHOUGH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
   MOISTENING IN THE LAYER OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT /700 TO 850
   MB/ MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE FOR SPORADIC OVERLAND
   THUNDER TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON. 

   ...S FL THIS AFTN...
   SSW-NNE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TSTMS
   THIS AFTN AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY
   LAYER TO ITS EAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK
   AS SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NNEWD. MODEST DEEP SHEAR ALSO
   WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION. 

   ...THE OH...LWR MS...AND LWR TN VLYS TODAY... 
   WHILE AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND
   N OF TRACK OF MO UPR IMPULSE...I.E. OVER PARTS OF IL...IND...SRN
   MI...AND WRN OH THROUGH EARLY TNGT...LOW TO MID-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW
   TO SYSTEM WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY LIMITED. COUPLED WITH THE
   LARGELY CONFLUENT NATURE OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE OH
   VLY...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 10% TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS LOW. FARTHER
   S...DEEP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND UPLIFT APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SRN PART OF THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
   LWR MS AND LWR TN VLYS LATER TODAY.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z