Jan 6, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 6 12:52:32 UTC 2014 (20140106 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140106 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140106 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140106 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140106 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140106 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 AM CST MON JAN 06 2014

   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CYCLONIC FLOW IN MID-UPPER LEVELS COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CONUS E OF
   ROCKIES ATTM.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES TWO EMBEDDED LOW
   CENTERS ALOFT WITHIN RELATED GYRE -- ONE OVER EXTREME NWRN ONT JUST
   S OF HUDSON BAY...AND ANOTHER OVER WI.  FOREGOING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WAS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES.  NRN PORTION OF THIS
   FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT GENERALLY NWD AND EVOLVE INTO PRIMARY
   POLAR-VORTEX CENTER OVER NRN QUE BY END OF PERIOD.  AS THAT
   OCCURS...CURRENT 500-MB LOWS WILL DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE
   TROUGHS...WITH WI PERTURBATION REACHING ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF QUE
   AND NWRN ONT CENTER MOVING SWD TO NEAR LS.  NET EFFECT OVER
   CENTRAL/SERN CONUS WILL BE HEIGHT RISES DUE TO EWD SHIFT AND SLGT
   DEAMPLIFICATION OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH.  

   ARCTIC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 12Z FROM CENTRAL NY TO CENTRAL
   NC...SERN GA AND NERN GULF...WILL SWEEP OFF ENTIRE ATLC COAST BY
   ABOUT 03Z.

   ...NERN CONUS...
   NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION PRECEDES COLD FRONT OVER NY AND INLAND
   MID-ATLC REGION...THOUGH FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT UP TO THIS
   BAND FARTHER S ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.  CONVECTIVE BAND IN TURN
   IS PRECEDED BY MIXTURE OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM PRECIP EMBEDDED
   WITHIN INTENSE/ELEVATED REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT.  POOR LAPSE RATES...INCLUDING EFFECTS OF ABUNDANT PRECIP
   COVERAGE...WILL LIMIT ENVIRONMENTAL BUOYANCY OVERALL.  HOWEVER...12Z
   OKX RAOB AND SOME MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CAPE
   DENSITY...I.E. NARROW/LOW-LI BUOYANT PROFILE...EXTENDING INTO
   SUITABLE ICING LAYERS.  AS SUCH...LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
   PORTIONS SERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE
   BAND.  ATTM...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/BRIEF/ISOLATED TO WARRANT
   GEN TSTM AREA.

   ..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 01/06/2014

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