Jan 6, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 6 16:23:36 UTC 2014 (20140106 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140106 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140106 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140106 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140106 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140106 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061620

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CST MON JAN 06 2014

   VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP...ELONGATED POLAR VORTEX EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWD ACROSS
   THE UPR GRT LKS WILL PIVOT SLOWLY E TO A NW QUE-UPSTATE NY AXIS BY
   12Z TUE AS LEAD IMPULSE NOW ENTERING SW QUE SWEEPS RAPIDLY NNE INTO
   NEWFOUNDLAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE ERN VORTEX...THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
   SHOULD WEAKEN AND BACK TO WNWLY OVER THE WRN U.S. AND THE HIGH PLNS.

   SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT
   CONTINUES NEARLY DUE N ACROSS CNTRL QUE. STRONG COLD FRONT ARCING S
   FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW
   ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY.  

   ...NEW ENGLAND TODAY...
   THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING QUE SFC LOW ATTM
   EXTENDS ROUGHLY N-S THROUGH THE CT RVR VLY. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY
   A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT THAT CURRENTLY IS ENTERING WRN NEW ENGLAND.
   AHEAD OF THE LEAD COLD FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND HAS
   GIVEN RISE TO A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT CONTAINS SPORADIC
   THUNDER.

   OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY PERSIST WITHIN THE
   PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS ME AND THE
   REMAINDER OF MA IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN FRONT. BUT WITH ASSOCIATED
   LAYER OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE...AND WITH THE
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ACCELERATING NNE INTO QUE WITH
   LEAD UPR IMPULSE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
   TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS LOW.  

   ...CNTRL/S FL TODAY...
   MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
   PROHIBIT DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN PART OF SAME COLD FRONT
   AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AS THAT BOUNDARY CROSSES THE FL PENINSULA
   TODAY.

   ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 01/06/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z