Jan 7, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 7 12:36:31 UTC 2014 (20140107 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140107 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140107 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140107 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140107 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140107 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071232

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2014

   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   OVER ERN CONUS...HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ARE FCST THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD.
    THIS WILL OCCUR AS LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE NOW CENTERED OVER NRN QUE
   MOVES NWD TOWARD BAFFIN ISLAND AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ST.
   LAWRENCE VALLEY MOVES ENEWD TO CANADIAN MARITIMES.  COLD/DRY HIGH
   PRESSURE AREA FOLLOWING ARCTIC FROPA OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...AND
   DRY/STABLE PATTERN OVER WRN STATES...PRECLUDE THUNDER POTENTIAL
   ACROSS OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF CONUS.

   ...NRN NY...
   ONE EXCEPTION TO LACK OF THUNDER MAY BE PERSISTENT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
   BAND EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS JEFFERSON/LEWIS/OSWEGO/HERKIMER
   COUNTIES NY.  OCNL LTG WAS DETECTED OVERNIGHT...AND ANOTHER STRIKE
   OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING.  WHILE
   HEAVY-SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF PERIOD...ENVIRONMENT
   SUPPORTING EMBEDDED LTG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
   TIME AS INVERSION LAYER LOWERS AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH
   THAT DECREASE SLIGHTLY.  COMBINED IMPACT WILL BE TO REDUCE ALREADY
   MEAGER MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 100 J/KG AND RESTRICT ANY REMAINING CAPE
   TO BENEATH OPTIMAL THERMAL LAYERS FOR LTG PRODUCTION.

   ..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 01/07/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z