Jan 7, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 7 19:28:34 UTC 2014 (20140107 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140107 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140107 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140107 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140107 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140107 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071925

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CST TUE JAN 07 2014

   VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   NO CHANGES NEEDED...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/07/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0939 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS THROUGH WED AS
   DEEP VORTEX NOW CENTERED E OF HUDSON BAY RETREATS NWD INTO NRN
   LABRADOR AND TRAILING VORT LOBE NOW EXTENDING S INTO THE MID-
   ATLANTIC REGION SWEEPS RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

   EXPANSIVE AREA OF LARGELY SUBSIDENT POLAR/ARCTIC AIR IN WAKE OF ERN
   NORTH AMERICAN VORTEX WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND/OR STABLE LOW-LVL
   ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDER OVER MUCH OF THE NATION.
   ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR AN ADDITIONAL C-G LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTIVE
   PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM LK ONT...INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DECREASE
   WITH TIME AS AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE MOVES BEYOND REGION. COUPLED
   WITH AN EXPECTED GRADUAL DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
   RATES...PROSPECTS FOR APPRECIABLE LAKE-INDUCED THUNDER APPEAR
   MINIMAL.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z