Jan 8, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 8 12:39:30 UTC 2014 (20140108 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140108 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140108 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140108 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140108 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140108 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081235

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL TO GENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
   OVER MOST OF CONUS..WITH WEAK/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ERN
   ORE AND SRN NV.  BY 12Z...THESE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO MOVE SEWD
   TO CENTRAL/SERN CO AND SRN OK/N TX REGION...RESPECTIVELY. 
   MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE PAC NW...NEAR 135W -- SHOULD MOVE ASHORE
   WA/ORE BETWEEN 00-06Z...TURNING SEWD ACROSS THOSE STATES THROUGH
   REMAINDER PERIOD.

   AT SFC...DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY EVIDENT OVER OK
   PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND SHIFT SWD
   ACROSS TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION IN STEP WITH WEAK COLD FRONT AND
   RELATED WIND SHIFT...WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OK SWWD ACROSS
   NW TX AND SERN NM BY 00Z.

   ALTHOUGH NO GEN TSTM AREAS ARE FCST ATTM...ANY OF THREE CONDITIONAL
   REGIMES MAY YIELD A FEW LTG STRIKES IF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ARE
   OPTIMIZED.

   ...E TX/ARKLATEX AREA...
   AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL
   OCCUR WITHIN WAA PLUME.  ASSOCIATED TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
   EMANATE FROM EARLY-STAGE AIR-MASS MODIFICATION REGIME OVER WRN GULF.
    LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ALREADY IS UNDERWAY PER RAOBS...GPS PW DATA
   AND SFC ANALYSIS...HOWEVER LACK OF BOTH SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG
   POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THIS REGIME PRIOR TO
   DAY-2.  SREF MEMBERS ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
   PRECIP OR NONE IN THIS AREA DURING 09-12Z TIME FRAME...WRF-ARW PROGS
   BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE AND NMM-B MEMBERS BEING LARGELY DEVOID.  OTHER
   MODELS SUCH AS OPERATIONAL NAM/SPECTRAL AND ARW-KF ARE BORDERLINE
   WITH RESPECT TO SUFFICIENT JUXTAPOSITION OF THETAE IN ELEVATED
   WAA/INVERSION LAYER AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE THAT ARE BARELY
   UNSTABLE...IF THAT MUCH.  GIVEN THAT CAPE WOULD BE WEAK...IF
   ANY...AND PRESENCE OF SUCH INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE...TSTM
   POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL FOR NOW.

   ...S FL/KEYS...
   REMNANT ARCTIC FRONT HAS LARGELY STALLED OVER PORTIONS
   BAHAMAS...CUBA AND NWRN CARIBBEAN...AND SOME NWD RETURN OF FAVORABLY
   MOIST/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD NRN BAHAMAS...GULF
   STREAM AND STRAITS.  HOWEVER...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH
   TO OVERCOME STABLE LAYERS ALOFT EVIDENT IN 12Z EYW/MFL/NASSAU
   RAOBS...AND TO PRODUCE LTG...SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER.

   ...PAC NW...
   BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION
   ACCOMPANYING DCVA PLUME STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
   IT MOVES ASHORE AHEAD OF PAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...MAX MUCAPE
   SHOULD REMAIN VERY MRGL AT LESS THAN 100 J/KG.  POTENTIAL APPEARS
   TOO MRGL/ISOLATED FOR GEN TSTM AREA.

   ..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 01/08/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z