Jan 8, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 8 16:30:34 UTC 2014 (20140108 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140108 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140108 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140108 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140108 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140108 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGELY ZONAL...WEAKLY CYCLONIC...MULTI-STREAM FLOW WILL PREVAIL
   OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THU...S OF SLOWLY RETREATING POLAR VORTEX NOW
   CENTERED OVER NRN LABRADOR. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL
   PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL OVER SEVERAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL
   COMBINATION OF LIFT AND BUOYANCY IN THESE REGIONS LIKELY WILL REMAIN
   TOO LIMITED TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDER.

   ...E TX/SE OK/ARKLATEX LATE TNGT/EARLY THU...
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND LWR TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NNE ACROSS E
   TX INTO THE ARKLATEX...ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC SFC RIDGE.
   CURRENT SFC...925/850 MB...AND SATELLITE-DERIVED MOISTURE DATA
   SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO
   SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDER GIVEN /1/ EXPECTED DEGREE OF
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF LOW-AMPLITUDE VORTS NOW
   OVER NM AND W TX...AND /2/ RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

   WHILE MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
   SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF E
   TX...SE OK...AND THE ARKLATEX...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
   LIKELIHOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF TSTMS APPEARS LOW.

   ...S FL/KEYS TODAY/TNGT...
   ARCTIC FRONT WILL BECOME STNRY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER THE
   BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS/WRN CUBA LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE
   EDGES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO REFORM NWD
   TNGT/EARLY THU...WITH THE 850 MB FLOW OVER THE REGION BECOMING MORE
   SELY. THIS MAY LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
   ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY TNGT AND THU MORNING.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IN SRN STREAM JET WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK.
   COUPLED WITH COMPARATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT...ANY THUNDER THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE LOW-LVL THETA-E
   FLUXES WILL BE GREATEST.

   ...PAC NW THIS EVE...
   MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING THE WA CST WILL
   FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES ESE ACROSS THAT STATE AND ORE
   TNGT/EARLY THU. ISOLD/SPORADIC LTG MAY OCCUR THIS EVE IN ATTENDANT
   CURRENT OF ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND DCVA.  HOWEVER...MUCAPE LIKELY
   WILL REMAIN AOB 100 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT
   APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE
   FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THUNDER POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO MARGINAL FOR A
   CATEGORICAL TSTM FCST.

   ..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 01/08/2014

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