Jan 9, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 9 00:46:31 UTC 2014 (20140109 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140109 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140109 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140109 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140109 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140109 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 090042

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 PM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...NERN TX...SERN OK...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR REGION...

   SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER AR THIS EVENING IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EJECTING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT
   AND LITTLE ROCK SHOW VERY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYERS BETWEEN 850-700
   MB AND 700-500 MB BELOW WEAK CAPPING INVERSIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES
   ARE TOO WARM AND INSTABILITY IS TOO WEAK FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. 

   A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR IN WAKE
   OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...A SSWLY 50 KT LLJ WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF AN
   UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL
   MAINTAIN MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN
   PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND THIS MAY HELP TO FURTHER ERODE THE
   CAPPING INVERSION AND DEEPEN THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYER
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

   ..DIAL.. 01/09/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z