Jan 9, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 9 05:11:33 UTC 2014 (20140109 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140109 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140109 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140109 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140109 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140109 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 090508

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 PM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST MOST OF
   THURSDAY. VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
   THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO
   THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
   THURSDAY NIGHT. A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY. 

   ...ARKLATEX REGION...

   DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE SRN PLAINS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A SSWLY LLJ
   EARLY THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD MID-DAY AS THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ZONE OF ASCENT SHIFT EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS.

   ...NWRN TX THROUGH SRN OK...

   SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE...AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
   DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
   CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THE
   ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEPER CONVECTION UNTIL VERY LATE IN
   THE PERIOD WHEN INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENT REGIME MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW ELEVATED
   STORMS TO DEVELOP.

   ..DIAL/COHEN.. 01/09/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z