Jan 9, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 9 12:59:33 UTC 2014 (20140109 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140109 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140109 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140109 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140109 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140109 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091256

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014

   VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CURRENT UPPER-AIR REGIME OF ZONAL TO GENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING NEXT 23 HOURS.
    INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR NWRN CONUS -- IS FCST TO
   AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING 00-06Z TIME
   FRAME...THEN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z.  MEANWHILE...INITIALLY
   SEPARATE SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY W OF BAJA BETWEEN 120-125W -- SHOULD PIVOT EWD ACROSS NWRN
   AND N-CENTRAL MEX.  NRN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PHASE WITH
   ROCKIES/HIGH-PLAINS PERTURBATION BY END OF PERIOD...RESULTING IN
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM WRN DAKOTAS SWD TO FAR W TX THEN SWWD
   ACROSS NWRN MEX TO SRN BAJA. 

   AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO APCHG
   MID-UPPER TROUGHS.  LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN-STREAM
   FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT OF MTNS AND BEGIN TO OVERTAKE LEE TROUGH OVER
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND 06Z.  BY END OF PERIOD...EXPECT WEAK LOW
   OVER CENTRAL/WRN KS WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ERN
   NM. 

   ...ARKLATEX AREA TO N TX AND SERN OK...
   TSTM OUTLOOK AREA REPRESENTS TWO EPISODES...RELATED TO SAME GENERAL
   PROCESS AND OVERLAPPING SPATIALLY...THAT SHOULD BE SEPARATED IN TIME
   BY MANY HOURS.  AHEAD OF FRONT AND LEE TROUGH...STG LOW-LEVEL WAA
   AND MOISTURE-TRANSPORT PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PERIOD. 
   POSITION-RELATIVE THETAE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THIS REGION SHOULD
   INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY WITH TIME...AS TRAJECTORIES FROM
   INCREASINGLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ENTRAINED INTO WAA
   PLUME.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LTG HAS BEEN DETECTED SO FAR
   THIS MORNING IN RELATED PRECIP PLUME...BETWEEN E TX AND SRN AR. 
   THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING INTO AFTN AS LLJ
   ABATES AND LAPSE RATES SUBTLY WEAKEN WITHIN LAYER OF ELEVATED CAPE
   SAMPLED BY 12Z SHV RAOB. 

   LATE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD END OF PERIOD...ANOTHER BAND OF TSTMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PART OF WAA PLUME AND BEGIN TRANSLATING EWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF N TX AND SERN OK...CONTINUING ON INTO DAY-2 PERIOD. 
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPE 200-600 J/KG
   AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW WITHIN 40-55 KT LLJ. 

   ...SERN FL...
   RESIDUAL ARCTIC FRONT HAS BEEN WEAKENING GRADUALLY AND RETURNING
   NWWD ACROSS BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS...WITH MARKED 24-HOUR INCREASES
   IN TEMP AND DEW POINT ACROSS THIS REGION.  12Z MFL RAOB SAMPLED NWRN
   EDGE OF RETURNING MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR WITH SFC DEW POINT NEAR 70 F
   AND 1.75-2 INCH PW.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN
   MRGL...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CINH AND ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THETAE SHOULD
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
   OVER STRAITS AND GULF STREAM POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR COAST
   THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
   OVER LAND THIS AFTN AMIDST FAVORABLE DIURNAL SFC HEATING.

   ..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 01/09/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z