Jan 9, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 9 20:01:36 UTC 2014 (20140109 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140109 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140109 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140109 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140109 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140109 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091958

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CST THU JAN 09 2014

   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SRN-EAST CENTRAL FL...
   GENERAL TSTM AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE NWD ALONG THE EAST
   CENTRAL FL COASTAL REGION FROM KVRB TO INVOF KMLB...GIVEN ONGOING
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THAT AREA.

   ...NRN UT...
   AN ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN UT
   WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
   ATTENDANT TO A ESEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  OVERALL COVERAGE OF
   THIS POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE
   INCLUSION OF A 10 PERCENT TSTM AREA.

   ...SRN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE GENERAL TSTM AREA FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
   PERIOD OVER PARTS OF TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO THE ARKLATEX.

   ..PETERS.. 01/09/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFICATION TREND OVER THE CONUS...ONE THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
   THE WEEKEND...WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
   ADVANCING SE ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS/NRN GRT BASIN PHASES WITH SRN
   STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER BAJA CA/AZ TO YIELD A BROAD TROUGH OVER
   THE HIGH PLNS BY 12Z FRI.  

   IN THE MEAN TIME...WEAKLY CYCLONIC ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
   MUCH OF THE NATION. TWO DISTURBANCES IN THIS PATTERN...ONE NOW OVER
   THE ARKLATEX AND THE OTHER NOW ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE...WILL
   DOMINATE THE THUNDER FCST THIS PERIOD. 

   ...TX HILL COUNTRY INTO ARKLATEX/SE OK TODAY/TNGT...
   WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME OVER THE
   SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING UPR TROUGH AND ON
   BACK SIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC SFC RIDGE COVERING THE CNTRL AND ERN
   U.S. OVERALL...HOWEVER...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE
   AVAILABILITY WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST OVER THE REGION...WITH
   PW LIKELY REMAINING AOB 1 INCH UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

   THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ATTM EXTENDING
   FROM SE TX INTO ERN AR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE
   ASSOCIATED UPR IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE ARKLATEX FURTHER WEAKENS AND
   SYSTEM CONTINUES ENE INTO DRIER AIR. TSTM CHANCES
   SHOULD...HOWEVER...INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SSWLY LLJ OVER THE
   SRN PLNS STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.
   THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
   MORE ROBUST WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION...THIS ONE ORIENTED FROM
   THE TX HILL COUNTRY NNE INTO S CNTRL/SE OK. SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z FRI
   OVER N TX AND THE RED RVR VLY...WHERE MUCAPE MAY REACH 750 J/KG AND 
   MODERATE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW WILL EXIST. 

   ...SERN FL THIS AFTN...
   OBSERVATIONS SHOW RESIDUAL SHALLOW COOL AIR LAYER CONTINUING TO
   MODIFY OVER THE REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE
   DIFFUSE OVER THE FL STRAITS. THESE TRENDS...ALONG WITH FURTHER
   MOISTENING...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   WILL REMAIN WEAK AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEGLIGIBLE. BUT
   GIVEN VERY WEAK CINH DEPICTED IN LOCAL SOUNDINGS...COMBINATION OF
   INCREASING MOISTURE...WEAK FRONTAL UPLIFT...AND MODEST SFC HEATING
   MAY ALLOW EXISTING CONVECTION TO SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD ISOLD
   TO PERHAPS WDLY SCTD THUNDER LATER TODAY.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z