Jan 10, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 10 05:42:33 UTC 2014 (20140110 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140110 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140110 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140110 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140110 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140110 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 100538

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 PM CST THU JAN 09 2014

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC PERTURBATION OVER
   THE CNTRL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CONUS-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
   PROGRESSING EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT
   PRECEDING THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
   PLAINS...TEMPERED BY RELATIVELY HIGH STATIC STABILITY AMIDST A
   MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS. THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD TO
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE INTERACTING WITH A DEEPER CYCLONE
   ADVANCING INTO WRN ONTARIO CANADA. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
   TRAILING SW OF THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   PLAINS...AHEAD OF WHICH RETURN FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POLEWARD
   TRANSPORT OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
   THE OH VALLEY.

   ...PORTIONS OF ERN TX/SERN OK EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
   GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
   DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S...WITH UPPER
   50S DEWPOINTS AT A FEW SITES. WITH GPS PW DATA SUGGESTING THE
   ABUNDANCE OF RICHER DEEP MOISTURE RESIDING FARTHER S...AND ONGOING
   SFC RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST...PROSPECTS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   MOISTURE RETURN APPEAR LIMITED THUS MITIGATING THE OVERALL SVR
   POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT 60-64-F SFC
   DEWPOINTS AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM E TX TO SWRN
   AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE N. 

   MEANWHILE...DCVA PRECEDING THE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG
   THE WRN PERIPHERY OF RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A SQUALL LINE FROM NERN TX INTO SERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WHICH WILL THEN TRACK EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BROAD
   WARM-SECTOR CONFLUENCE AMIDST MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A TROUGH-PRECEDING LLJ SHOULD ALSO FOSTER A SEPARATE AREA OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD/EWD.

   DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS OTHERWISE SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION AND A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS -- E.G.
   500-MB WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OVER 70 KT ABOVE A 40-50-KT LLJ -- THE
   PAUCITY OF LOW-LEVEL/DEEP MOISTURE AND DEARTH OF BUOYANCY WILL
   OFFSET THE SVR POTENTIAL. INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY
   WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE RETURN-FLOW REGIME WILL FURTHER
   LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
   COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS
   WITH BOWING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS.

   A TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS NERN TX AND
   VICINITY WHERE INITIATING CONVECTION MAY EXHIBIT MIXED
   SEMI-DISCRETE/QLCS MODES AMIDST HIGHER SFC THETA-E.
   LIKEWISE...LONGER-DURATION MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST MAY YIELD MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS BY LATE TONIGHT AND A
   NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT FROM SRN LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
   HOWEVER...GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS
   AMIDST MEAGER BUOYANCY WILL PROBABLY MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 01/10/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z