Jan 10, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 10 12:49:36 UTC 2014 (20140110 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140110 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140110 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140110 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140110 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140110 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101245

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO CNTRL ROCKIES
   WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD...CONTRIBUTING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
   FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH CNTRL NORTH AMERICA.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL
   FOSTER THE MOVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW FROM
   WRN KS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A
   SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ESEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL
   CANADA.  

   A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY FROM
   ERN KS TO W-CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE
   MID MS VALLEY...AND SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
   SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE A LATITUDINALLY
   ORIENTED WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
   AR/WRN TN...AS WELL AS A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL
   ADVANCE FROM WRN INTO CNTRL TX.

   ...SERN OK / ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT...

   CURRENT SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
   INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF RICHER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM
   THE BAHAMAS AND CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WSWWD THROUGH THE SRN GULF OF
   MEXICO WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS RETURNING THROUGH THE
   NWRN GULF INTO TX. THE SRN EXTENSION OF A SWLY LLJ WILL HASTEN THE
   INLAND FLUX OF THIS MODIFIED AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
   LOWER/MID 60S AT LEAST THROUGH THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH GENERALLY 50S
   FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE POLEWARD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
   HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE
   CONTENT...AND A WARM EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP /SEE THE 12Z BRO AND CRP
   SOUNDINGS/ WILL INHIBIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PEAK OF
   THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING AT OR BELOW
   500-1000 J/KG.

   SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TODAY
   WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE UPPER
   TROUGH...FROM N-CNTRL/NERN TX INTO WRN/NRN AR AND SRN MO. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE 10/21-11/00Z
   TIME FRAME INVOF THE ARKLATEX NEAR THE WARM/COLD FRONT-DRYLINE
   TRIPLE POINT SWD TO ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. HERE...STORMS MAY
   EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLY A TORNADO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

   BY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
   INTO A NARROW FORCED BAND AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE ACCELERATING
   COLD FRONT. INCREASING ANAFRONTAL FORCING AND DECREASING INSTABILITY
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS TSTM REGIME.

   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

   A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE GENERALLY AFTER
   11/03Z AHEAD OF THE COLD-FRONTAL STORMS WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM SERN LA/SRN MS INTO AL AND THE FL PNHDL.
   MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE
   STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
   INVERSION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE
   SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT A
   LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST.

   ..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/10/2014

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