Jan 10, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 10 19:46:35 UTC 2014 (20140110 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140110 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140110 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140110 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140110 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140110 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101942

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...N TX/S CENTRAL OK...
   AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR AN
   INCREASE IN SURFACE HEATING AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING ALONG AND
   JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK
   TO WRN NORTH TX.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
   THE 60S ACROSS THESE AREAS BENEATH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C
   CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE 300-500 J PER KG/ THUS FAR.
   OTHER THAN SHIFTING THE GENERAL TSTM LINE EWD A LITTLE ACROSS N
   TX...CENTRAL-NERN OK AND SWRN MO PER CURRENT POSITION OF THE COLD
   FRONT...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

   ...FAR NERN MO/ERN IA/NRN IL TO SRN IND/OH...
   HEIGHT FALLS OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING PLAINS TROUGH...
   AND FORCING FOR ASCENT/STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A LEAD
   IMPULSE APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL WAA
   ALONG A SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED TSTMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NWD
   REACHING ERN IA AND NRN IL YET THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...HAVE EXPANDED
   THE GENERAL TSTM AREA NWD.  MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER SRN IND/SWRN OH SHOULD
   BE MINIMAL...AND HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY REMOVED THE GENERAL TSTM
   POTENTIAL FROM MUCH OF THESE LATTER STATES.

   ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
   NO CHANGES REQUIRED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

   ..PETERS.. 01/10/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITHIN A LARGELY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME...A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
   TO THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS MIDLEVEL WAVE IS
   ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN S CENTRAL KS...AND THIS LOW
   WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
   11/12Z.  MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING IN TWO PRIMARY
   CORRIDORS...ONE INTO TX AND THE OTHER INTO FL.  THE RICHEST
   MOISTURE/HIGHEST PW IS OVERSPREADING FL WHERE SOME SURFACE-BASED
   CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. 
   MEANWHILE...A SWATH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM NE TX TO
   MO IN A ZONE OF MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL WAA...ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50
   KT LLJ.  THIS ZONE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT
   SPREADS EWD INTO TONIGHT...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
   REMAIN ELEVATED BASED ON THE FEED OF RICHEST MOISTURE/BUOYANCY
   CONFINED FARTHER TO THE SW IN TX.

   ...N TX/S CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...
   THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
   ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S
   CENTRAL OK AND N TX AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W-E ABOVE THE W
   EDGE OF THE SURFACE MOIST SECTOR.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
   IN OK TO NEAR 70 IN N TX WITH DEWPOINTS OF 54-60F WILL SUPPORT
   MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE BAND
   OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT.  THOUGH CAPE WILL NOT BE
   LARGE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND COOL MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /NEAR -20 C AT 500 MB/ COULD SUPPORT A MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
   RISK WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
   EVENING AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT IN
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES. 

   ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS LA AND SRN MS/AL THROUGH
   EARLY SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE-BASED
   BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SW OF THE STRONGER WAA ZONE AND
   RESULTANT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...SUCH THAT THERE WILL
   ONLY BE A NARROW OVERLAP NEAR OR JUST N OF I-10...WHERE EMBEDDED
   ROTATION STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY.  EVEN HERE...THE
   INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL SHELF WATERS COULD TEMPER THE INLAND
   PENETRATION OF THE MARINE AIR MASS.

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