Jan 11, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 11 01:04:32 UTC 2014 (20140111 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140111 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140111 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140111 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140111 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140111 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110100

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...NERN TX THROUGH AR...

   EARLY THIS EVENING A NARROW LINE OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
   DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM SWRN MO THROUGH NWRN AR AND SERN
   OK...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH A FEW DISCRETE BUT ELEVATED STORMS WERE
   DEVELOPING OVER NERN TX WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
   THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A VERY
   MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL
   AR INTO MID-EVENING. HOWEVER...CORRIDOR OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
   FARTHER EAST ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
   DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM. MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY OVER
   NERN TX MAY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SMALL HAIL FROM NERN TX INTO
   SWRN AR UNTIL ABOUT 03Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   APPROACHING THERMAL TROUGH. 

   ...REMAINDER OF LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

   EARLY THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY OR WARM FRONT RESIDES OVER THE
   NRN GULF. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD TONIGHT IN
   RESPONSE TO A STRONG LLJ THAT WILL MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE SERN
   STATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITH DEWPOINTS
   RISING TO THE LOW 60S OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES
   OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST. THE MOIST ADVECTION
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION INLAND...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
   REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...AND AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR
   SFC STABLE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF INCREASING ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA WITHIN ZONE OF
   STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT...AND ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO BANDS WITHIN ZONE
   OF INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LAYER TONIGHT. 

   WEAK INSTABILITY AND A NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER WILL REMAIN PRIMARY
   LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME
   EROSION OF THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS...LATER TONIGHT SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL
   FOR STORMS TO BECOME NEAR SFC BASED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
   SHOULD THIS OCCUR...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A TORNADO...AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   THIS UPDATE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS IMPOSED BY THE
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   ..DIAL.. 01/11/2014

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