Jan 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 11 05:51:31 UTC 2014 (20140111 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140111 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140111 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140111 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140111 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140111 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 168,625 23,798,178 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
   SPC AC 110547

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN
   STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A NEUTRAL TILT HIGH
   AMPLITUDE TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING TO
   THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
   SATURDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA BY THE END OF
   THIS PERIOD. FARTHER WEST A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
   THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

   ...SERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD
   THROUGH NERN AR INTO ERN AND CNTRL TX. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND
   ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH SRN GA INTO SRN PARTS OF THE
   GULF COASTAL STATES. A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NRN GULF AND
   SEPARATES RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS FROM THE
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR FARTHER NORTH. AREAS OF SCATTERED MOSTLY
   ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITHIN A BROAD
   ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE COASTAL
   FRONT. STORMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO
   A N-S ORIENTED BAND WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE. CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND INCREASING LINEAR ORGANIZATION MAY RESULT IN AN THREAT FOR
   MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST NWD INTO AL AND GA.

   NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM ACROSS THE SERN STATES INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WHICH WILL
   PROMOTE POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
   ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ALONG
   THE MIGRATORY LLJ AXIS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
   UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS AND LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BOTH LINEAR AND
   MULTICELL/DISCRETE MODES APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
   WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE ERN
   CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA WHERE LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
   LLJ AND A FEW DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN CONFLUENCE BANDS
   EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ADVANCE FARTHER NWWD
   THROUGH SERN VA.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 01/11/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z