Jan 11, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 11 20:03:32 UTC 2014 (20140111 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140111 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140111 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140111 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140111 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140111 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 86,533 10,503,961 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Fayetteville, NC...
   SPC AC 111959

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL AND SERN GA THROUGH
   THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE TIDEWATER INTO THIS EVENING...

   ...N FL/SE GA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND TIDEWATER THROUGH THIS
   EVENING...
   DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION/TSTMS MOVING INTO SERN VA...ERN
   CAROLINAS...SERN GA AND NRN FL.  FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
   GENERALLY LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   SUPPORTIVE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
   THREAT MAINLY WITH MESOVORTICES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND
   SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF STORMS.  GIVEN EWD
   PROGRESSION OF THE ONGOING TSTMS AS THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE ERN STATES...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE WIND
   AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES...AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN
   REDUCED ACCORDINGLY FROM THE WEST.

   ...WA/ORE COAST...
   REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN STRONGER OFFSHORE STORMS HAVE
   TENDED TO WEAKEN ONCE MOVING ONSHORE AND EWD AWAY FROM THE COAST
   WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE.  A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
   EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST...AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT
   SUPPORTS STORM ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THUS
   FAR...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT.  STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER INTO THE
   EVENING AS THE STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

   ..PETERS.. 01/11/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014/

   ...N FL/SE GA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND TIDEWATER THROUGH THIS
   EVENING...
   AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT OF SC/NC...AND THIS BAND EXTENDS FARTHER SW INTO CENTRAL GA
   AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  A BROAD SWATH OF RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 64-68 F/ HAS SPREAD INLAND ACROSS GA
   AND THE CAROLINAS AS THE WEDGE FRONT RETREATS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   CAROLINAS.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...THIS MOISTURE
   COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  ADDITIONALLY...
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG IN THE MOIST SECTOR AS A RESULT OF A 50-70
   KT SSWLY LLJ PER REGIONAL VWP/S.  

   THE NET RESULT WILL BE THE MAINTENANCE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE W.  THE
   RELATIVELY LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...AS WELL AS A
   FEW TORNADOES WITH MESOVORTICES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.  THE SUPERCELL
   RISK IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS TO TEMPER SURFACE HEATING...AND A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME IN THE AREA WHERE MORE CELLULAR STORMS ARE
   MOVING INLAND OFF THE NE GULF.  STILL...ADDITIONAL SEMI-DISCRETE
   CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE FL PANHANDLE IN
   THE NEAR TERM TO SE GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE NC COAST IN A
   CONFLUENCE BAND THAT COINCIDES LOOSELY WITH THE W EDGE OF THE WARMER
   OCEAN TEMPERATURES.

   ...PAC NW COAST TODAY...
   A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
   LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA SHOWING SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
   OFFSHORE.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...IT WILL BE ROOTED NEAR
   THE SURFACE AND THE STRONG WIND PROFILES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
   STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS.

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