Jan 12, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 12:24:33 UTC 2014 (20140112 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140112 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140112 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140112 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140112 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140112 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121220

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE D1
   PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
   WEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY
   A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL U.S. WITH THIS FEATURE REACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAIN LATE
   TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  

   ...SRN/SERN TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...

   THE POLEWARD ADVECTION OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROMINENT OVER THE NWRN GULF INTO TX ON THE
   BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING THE REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL
   OCCUR BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES
   /REF. 12Z BRO AND CRP SOUNDINGS/...EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE
   COMBINATION OF CONTINUED AIR MASS MOISTENING AND WAA/ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ALONG A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A
   FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

   ..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/12/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z