Jan 12, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 16:23:28 UTC 2014 (20140112 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140112 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140112 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140112 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140112 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140112 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121619

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...NW GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
   A SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN
   WAVE AND EJECT ENEWD TO THE NW GULF COAST BY EARLY MONDAY...AS
   HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SEPARATE TROUGH
   MOVING ESEWD FROM THE ROCKIES.  A MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
   ACCOMPANYING THE NRN MEXICO WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMAL BUOYANCY
   ROOTED IN THE MIDLEVELS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE
   COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE ACROSS S TX AS A
   RESULT OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  AIR MASS MODIFICATION
   AND MOISTURE RETURN TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST SHOULD BECOME
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION
   REGIME FROM 06-12Z.

   ..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 01/12/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z