Jan 13, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 13 00:27:34 UTC 2014 (20140113 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140113 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140113 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140113 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140113 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140113 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 130022

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

   VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SRN TX INTO SWRN LA...
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO
   AND ACROSS SRN TX TONIGHT...LOSING AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER
   VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. LIFT AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
   ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SRN TX SHOW
   MOIST MIDLEVELS WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TOO WEAK FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT FAVORABLE WIND
   SHEAR PROFILES.

   AN INCREASE IN STORMS AND LIGHTNING COVERAGE COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE
   PERIOD ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA AND OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AS
   LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT.

   ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z