Jan 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 13 05:37:30 UTC 2014 (20140113 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140113 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140113 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140113 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140113 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140113 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 130533

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT TRAVELS FROM THE NWRN
   GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN STATES DURING THE DAY...PRECEDING A
   LARGER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE MS VALLEY BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A
   DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE SERN U.S. MON
   MORNING...BUT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW MID 60S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REACH COASTAL AREAS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES.
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WATER...WILL INTENSIFY WITH A
   MARGINAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLY AFFECTING COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL
   PANHANDLE. 

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
   WILL DEVELOP NEWD AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS RAPIDLY
   NEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE W. CONVECTION ALLOWING
   MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A CLUSTER OR DEVELOPING LINE
   OF STORMS ACROSS SRN LA INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AT 12Z
   MON...MOVING THESE STORMS EWD ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHICH WILL
   SEPARATE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIR TO THE N AND MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
   OFFSHORE. FLOW FIELDS WILL FAVOR FAST MOVING STORMS EVENTUALLY
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   ISOLATED...AND COULD BE ZERO IF THE BULK OF THE SURFACE BASED
   ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME...COASTAL LA...MS...AL...AND
   THE WRN FL PANHANDLE APPEAR AT RISK FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

   ..JEWELL/MARSH.. 01/13/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z