Jan 13, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 13 12:21:31 UTC 2014 (20140113 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140113 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140113 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140113 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140113 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140113 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131218

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 AM CST MON JAN 13 2014

   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE NATION IN RESPONSE
   TO THE EQUATORWARD TRANSLATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM
   WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT
   FALLS/TROUGHING OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES. MEANWHILE...A LOW-LATITUDE
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN
   SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE EJECTING NEWD WITHIN A CONFLUENT MIDLEVEL FLOW
   REGIME PRECEDING THE POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. 

   IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SERN
   TX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING GENERALLY EWD
   ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BEFORE TURNING MORE NEWD INTO THE
   SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. ON THE HEELS OF
   THIS LOW PRESSURE...A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY WILL CONCURRENTLY ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST 
   STATES.  

   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...

   LATEST SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM
   FRONT --SEPARATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FROM LOW TO
   MID 60S-- LIFTING NWD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH FAR SERN
   TX...TO ALONG THE LA COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE LOW-LATITUDE IMPULSE COUPLED WITH POLEWARD MOISTURE FLUX WITHIN
   THE ATTENDING WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM HAVE PROMOTED A SHIELD OF
   SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY
   TO OFF THE TX AND LA COASTS. AS OF 12Z...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
   WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES S OF LCH WITHIN THE MORE MOIST
   AIR MASS TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT.

   EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO PROGRESS INLAND OVER AT LEAST FAR SERN LA
   TODAY...SUGGESTING A RISK FOR SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT/S LOCATION. GIVEN THE TIGHTENING
   MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
   SPEEDS AND SHEAR...A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   EXIST WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.

   THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR
   E AS COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EVENING.  BUT GIVEN THE GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH AND TENDENCY FOR THE TSTMS TO OUTPACE THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF
   THE WARM FRONT...ANY DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL REMAIN LOW AND SHORT IN
   DURATION.

   ..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/13/2014

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