Jan 13, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 13 19:51:36 UTC 2014 (20140113 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140113 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140113 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140113 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140113 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140113 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131948

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO ADJUST
   THE WRN EDGE OF THUNDER PROBABILITIES.  ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN
   MADE TO REDUCE THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST.

   TROPICAL MARITIME AIR MASS IS ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   GULF BASIN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGHER QUALITY THETA-E AIR
   ROUGHLY 100 MI SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE.  MT AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO
   MOVE INLAND ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE HENCE ONGOING BAND OF ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND LIMITED IN ITS
   ABILITY TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  LATEST RADAR DATA
   DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF
   ESCAMBIA COUNTY...SWWD FOR ROUGHLY 100 MI INTO THE NRN MOST EDGE OF
   HIGHER QUALITY THETA-E AIR.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EWD AT
   ROUGHLY 25-30KT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO BAY/GULF COUNTIES AFTER 23Z. 
   FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO
   ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SQUALL LINE.

   ..DARROW.. 01/13/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST MON JAN 13 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITHIN AMBIENT/LONGWAVE REGIME OF PERSISTENT MS VALLEY
   TROUGHING...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM ROCKIES TO E COAST
   AND GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST.  WITHIN THAT PATTERN...12Z RAOB
   ANALYSIS AND LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS INDICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   FROM NWRN MEX AND FAR W TX NEWD ACROSS OK AND ERN KS...PRECEDED BY
   120-130 M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   EWD TO IL...SERN MO...ARKLATEX REGION AND S-CENTRAL TX BY 00Z.  BY
   END OF PERIOD...TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM UPPER OH VALLEY SSWWD TO
   ERN TN...AL...AND EXTREME SERN LA...WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION
   UNDERWAY.  UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY OVER NWRN AB -- SHOULD AMPLIFY AND MOVE SEWD TO NEB BY 12Z.

   AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 15Z FROM NRN IL TO NRN AR...E TX
   AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY BETWEEN LRF-MFE.  FRONT SHOULD PROCEED
   EWD/SEWD TO WRN OH...WRN/MID TN...ERN MS AND SERN LA BY 00Z.  BY
   12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH INLAND MID-ATLC
   REGION...CAROLINAS...AND ERN FL PANHANDLE.  WEAK SFC LOW INITIALLY
   OVER E TX SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER INLAND GULF COAST STATES
   THEN NEWD ACROSS GA OVERNIGHT...WHILE FUNCTIONING AS FRONTAL WAVE.

   MARINE/WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT OVER ERN AND NRN GULF FROM FL KEYS TO
   NEAR BUOY 42003 THEN NWWD TO JUST SW OF MS RIVER MOUTH...WHERE IT IS
   BEING OVERTAKEN BY PREFRONTAL PRECIP SWATH WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
   SECONDARY WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM NEAR MS RIVER MOUTH EWD TO
   JUST S OF BOTH CAPE SAN BLAS AND AAF.  NRN WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
   SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER COASTAL FL PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN
   TODAY BY PRECIP PLUME...AND TONIGHT...BY COLD FRONT.

   ...CENTRAL-ERN GULF COAST REGION...
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED/SW-NE ALIGNED BANDS OF TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
   BROADER PREFRONTAL PRECIP PLUME...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE NET EWD
   SHIFT ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  PRECIP SHOULD
   HELP TO MAINTAIN STATIC STABILITY INLAND AND N OF BOTH WARM-FRONTAL
   SEGMENTS...IMPEDING THEIR NWD PROGRESS PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. 
   EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS THAT PENETRATE
   SHALLOW/NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER.  HOWEVER...RICHER/OPTIMAL LOW-LEVEL
   THETAE WILL REMAIN WITH MOST FULLY MODIFIED MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR
   LOCATED S OF SRN WARM FRONT.  WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALSO SHOULD
   CONTINUE IN CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT GIVEN SPATIAL LAG OF
   SHORTWAVE-RELATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.  AS SUCH...ONLY MRGL SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY AT MOST WILL BE AVAILABLE TO CONVECTION SHIFTING EWD ALONG
   MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE COASTLINES...AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD
   BE OVER GULF ALONG AND S OF PRIMARY MARINE FRONT.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z