Jan 14, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 14 05:18:32 UTC 2014 (20140114 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140114 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140114 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140114 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140114 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140114 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140514

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE ERN
   TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES NEWD FROM
   THE SERN U.S. INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A PAIR OF PHASING IMPULSES
   AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. ANY APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
   SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   PRECEDE A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA ATTENDANT
   TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES DISPLACED
   AWAY FROM THIS FRONTAL SEGMENT...ASCENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SHALLOW BENEATH DRYING MID LEVELS WITH POOR LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
   DECREASING THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE DAY.

   OTHERWISE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER N
   OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC/SC/GA THROUGH MID-DAY...AS ASCENT WITHIN
   A WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS AUGMENTED BY DCVA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THAT BUOYANCY PROFILES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE TOO MEAGER
   TO INCLUDE A THUNDER AREA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
   TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED PHASING IMPULSES -- I.E. ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
   NEB/KS/OK AND ACROSS NRN INDIANA/NWRN OH/SRN LOWER MI. SCANT
   MOISTURE/BUOYANCY PRECLUDE THUNDER AREAS.

   ..COHEN/JEWELL.. 01/14/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z