Jan 14, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 14 12:31:34 UTC 2014 (20140114 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140114 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140114 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140114 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140114 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140114 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141227

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0627 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM WRN CANADA TO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EQUATORWARD TOWARD THE WRN GULF
   COAST...CONTRIBUTING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH
   FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL
   RESULT IN THE NEWD EJECTION AND SUBSEQUENT DE-AMPLIFICATION OF A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL GULF
   COAST.

   IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
   UPPER-AIR SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROGRESS OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC
   COAST TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA BY
   15/12Z. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
   SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO
   THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.  

   ...FL TODAY...

   AS OF 12Z...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TSTMS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF
   THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG AREA...MOVING EWD AT 20-25 KT. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS ROOTED WITHIN A MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
   MODESTLY STRONG DEEP SWLY WIND FIELD...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
   ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO. THEREAFTER...ANY LINGERING TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO WLY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
   EXPECTED.

   ..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/14/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z