Jan 14, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 14 16:30:32 UTC 2014 (20140114 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140114 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140114 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140114 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140114 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140114 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   FL...WHILE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE FL
   BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.  THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...WITH OTHER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS S
   FL.  THEREAFTER...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END AS THE ASSOCIATED
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES BY WELL TO THE N ACROSS
   N FL/GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON.

   OTHERWISE...SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN
   NEB/KS THIS AFTERNOON IN A ZONE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
   SHALLOW CONVECTION SINCE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IS QUITE LIMITED.

   ..THOMPSON.. 01/14/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z