Jan 14, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 14 19:20:34 UTC 2014 (20140114 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140114 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140114 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140114 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140114 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140114 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141916

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY WANED ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH THE
   STRONGEST ACTIVITY NOW LOCATED OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHTNING BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  GIVEN THESE TRENDS HAVE OPTED TO LOWER
   THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION TO LESS THAN 10
   PERCENT.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE WARMER MORE
   BUOYANT MARINE ENVIRONMENT THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

   ..DARROW.. 01/14/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   FL...WHILE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE FL
   BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.  THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...WITH OTHER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS S
   FL.  THEREAFTER...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END AS THE ASSOCIATED
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES BY WELL TO THE N ACROSS
   N FL/GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON.

   OTHERWISE...SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN
   NEB/KS THIS AFTERNOON IN A ZONE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
   SHALLOW CONVECTION SINCE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IS QUITE LIMITED.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z