Jan 15, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 15 05:36:31 UTC 2014 (20140115 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140115 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140115 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140115 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140115 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140115 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150533

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED OVER
   THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
   PERTURBATION DIGS SSEWD FROM THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   PROVINCES...AND MULTIPLE PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCE THROUGH
   THE FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...RESIDUAL MARITIME
   AIR/HIGHER THETA-E OVER S FL AND THE FL KEYS WILL BE REPLACED BY
   CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES/DRYING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AN INFLUX OF DRIER TROPOSPHERIC
   CONDITIONS...AND UNFAVORABLE PHASING OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
   MAXIMUM WITH INLAND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
   THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...A DEARTH OF
   BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..COHEN/JEWELL.. 01/15/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z