Jan 15, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 15 12:11:33 UTC 2014 (20140115 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140115 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140115 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140115 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140115 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140115 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 151207

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

   A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WITH
   RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO WRN NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM
   TROUGHING TO THE E OF THE U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES. WITHIN THIS
   BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO WRN
   GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN
   ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEP-LAYER
   JET STREAK OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE N-CNTRL
   CONUS.  

   IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SERIES OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS SURGES
   WILL OCCUR E OF THE ROCKIES...REINFORCING STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SERN FL PENINSULA THIS
   MORNING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. EXPECT TSTM POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
   LIMITED IN DURATION PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS THAN TEN
   PERCENT PROBABILITIES WARRANTED.

   ..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/15/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z