Jan 15, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 15 19:46:34 UTC 2014 (20140115 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140115 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140115 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140115 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140115 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140115 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 151942

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   NO CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/15/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER ERN
   CONUS WITH MEAN RIDGING FROM JUST OFFSHORE BAJA TO SRN AK. WITH
   BROAD FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA.  BY 12Z...THIS
   FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD TO POSITION FROM NY TO INLAND
   MID-ATLC...WRN NC...SC...AND SWD TO JUST OFFSHORE FL E COAST. 
   ANOTHER STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL 
   IMAGERY OVER NRN SK -- WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
   MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING STEADILY AND REACHING PORTIONS MN...IA AND NEB
   BY END OF PERIOD.

   AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE FL COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD
   AND AWAY FROM CONUS.  THIS WILL SHUNT ANY REMAINING 10% ENHANCED
   TSTM POTENTIAL OFF FL EWD OUT OF MARINE ZONES THROUGH PERIOD. 
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER ATLC WATERS OFF
   GA/SC...AS STG DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT...PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   ALOFT...PASSES OVER MARINE THERMAL/MOISTURE FLUXES RELATED TO GULF
   STREAM.  HOWEVER...ANY SUCH CONVECTION LIKEWISE SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
   FROM LAND.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z