Jan 16, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 16 12:44:30 UTC 2014 (20140116 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140116 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140116 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140116 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140116 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140116 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 161240

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

   AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE D1
   PERIOD...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC INTO WRN NORTH
   AMERICA...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES.
   MORE SPECIFICALLY...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   DEEP-LAYER JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS FROM THE N-CNTRL STATES SEWD
   THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO
   INTENSIFICATION/DEEPENING OF THE PARENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  

   IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE NRN
   GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE HEELS OF THIS LEAD FRONT...A STRONGER COLD
   FRONT WILL SURGE SWD/SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
   MIDWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE SURGES OF
   CONTINENTAL AIR WILL REINFORCE AN ALREADY GENERALLY STABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. ONE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD
   FRONT OVER THE OZARKS/MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG COOLING
   ALOFT TO SUPPORT BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

   ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
   NEAR-SHORE WATERS OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL COLD
   FRONT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. IN EITHER
   CASE...TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A GENERAL TSTM
   AREA.

   ..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/16/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z