Jan 16, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 16 19:38:32 UTC 2014 (20140116 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140116 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140116 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140116 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140116 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140116 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 161934

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

   ..BROYLES.. 01/16/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM...WILL ROTATE
   SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...NORTH OF
   STRONG JET CORE.  A NARROW BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED ON
   CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS
   IA INTO IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE IT
   APPEARS CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY
   MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

   ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE LATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
   GULF BASIN.  HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THEN BE
   SHUNTED SEWD AS SFC PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX
   OVERNIGHT.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z