Jan 17, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 17 00:26:35 UTC 2014 (20140117 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140117 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140117 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140117 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140117 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140117 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170021

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY IS QUICKLY DIGGING SSEWD OUT OF IA
   ACROSS THE MID-MS AND LOWER-OH VALLEYS. AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEP
   LAPSE RATES HAS SUPPORTED A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND OVER IA/IL...BUT
   DUE TO MEAGER BUOYANCY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MINIMAL. 

   MEANWHILE...SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN BY EARLY FRI
   MORNING. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE THE S TX COAST...BUT A WARM LAYER ABOVE
   ROUGHLY 1.5 KM AGL SHOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

   ..ROGERS.. 01/17/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z