Jan 17, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 17 05:16:34 UTC 2014 (20140117 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140117 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140117 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140117 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140117 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140117 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170512

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH E
   OF THE MS VALLEY AND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
   PERSIST. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
   WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   FRONT...WHILE LATER IN THE PERIOD...OFFSHORE SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS
   ACROSS THE CONUS AS A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS EXTENDS INTO THE SRN GULF
   BASIN. 

   ...UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN THE PRESENCE OF A VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM MOVING PARALLEL TO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
   AND AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MEAGER...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED BUOYANCY MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT /I.E. ON THE ORDER OF 50-100 J/KG SBCAPE/ TO SUPPORT
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...PRIMARILY
   THROUGH PORTIONS OF OH/WV INTO WRN PA. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO
   SPARSE TO WARRANT A 10 PERCENT GENERAL THUNDER AREA ATTM.

   ..ROGERS.. 01/17/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z