SPC AC 310537

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SRN CO/NORTHERN NM...

   LATE EVENING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER VORT AND
   ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS NRN CA INTO NV.  THIS
   FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR ESEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY
   01/00Z AS 85KT 500MB SPEED MAX RACES INTO NRN NM.  WHILE MOISTURE IS
   FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER VORT OVER THE SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY...LARGELY REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT.  THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN UT
   INTO SRN CO/NRN NM WHERE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DIURNAL
   HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  22Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR DRO EXHIBITS SBCAPE
   APPROACHING 175 J/KG WITH CLOUD TOPS EASILY ATTAINING LEVELS
   NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE INTRODUCED
   THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF MAIN JET AXIS.

   ...SRN FL...

   VERY MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FL WITH PW
   VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES.  WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED OVER THE
   STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE NWD IN RESPONSE TO
   APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK-MARGINAL
   ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO WARRANT AT LEAST
   AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT PRIMARILY WITH UPDRAFTS THAT EVOLVE
   NEAR THE MORE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHIFT.

   ..DARROW/DIAL.. 01/31/2014

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