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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 311938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH TWO AREAS OF ONGOING/ISOLATED LIGHTNING -- THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND THE S FL VICINITY -- BOTH HIGHLIGHT BY 10% THUNDER AREAS. WITH NO OTHER AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT GIVEN THE GENERALLY COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM. ..GOSS.. 01/31/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014/ ...NRN AZ/SRN UT EWD/ENEWD THROUGH KS/MO -- REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES A LOW-AMPLITUDE BUT POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED OVER THE WRN STATES...CURRENTLY EMERGING OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU. THIS IMPULSE WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE...AND ATTENDANT DCVA/ASCENT BEING AUGMENTED BY DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN AZ/SRN UT EWD TO PORTIONS OF THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR SWRN KS. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE PAUCITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. LIMITED PHASING OF THE IMPULSE WITH MEAGER ELEVATED RETURN MOISTURE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AND AN IMPULSE-PRECEDING LLJ STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF DIURNAL SUPPORT FOR BUOYANCY AND A TENDENCY FOR THE LLJ TO VEER AWAY FROM THE IMPULSE...WHICH WILL BE MINORING OUT INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL E OF THE THUNDER AREA. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER CONTENT IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYERS OWING TO COLD LCL TEMPERATURES. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO CNTRL KS AND MO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THE COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR THUNDER DELINEATION. ...SOUTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA -- REST OF TODAY... A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM THE WEST PALM BEACH AREA TO S OF NAPLES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW-LATITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE E GULF LIFTS NEWD. DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- E.G. 1.8-INCH PW PER THE 12Z MFL RAOB -- SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND/OR SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS S FL -- GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE E COAST VICINITY FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AROUND 35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED E OF THE IMPULSE PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP SHEAR. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AMIDST THE DECAYING BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MITIGATE ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR POTENTIAL. ISOLATED ELEVATED WEAK STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER N TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECEDING THE IMPULSE. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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