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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 161218 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL. WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY OCCUR ALONG A NW-SE-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. BY TONIGHT...SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING INTO SERN KS/NERN OK BY 17/12Z. BY THIS TIME...A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO SWRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ALIGN WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF AN EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO SUPPORT A LOW-PROBABILITY /I.E. LESS THAN 10 PERCENT/ RISK FOR TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES TO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ..MEAD/SMITH.. 02/16/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
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