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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 170416 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG I-70 FROM CNTRL MO AT 12Z INTO NRN INDIANA BY 00Z. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE NEWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO INTO IL EARLY. ELSEWHERE..A ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NWRN STATES WITH FAST WLY FLOW...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING WITH HEATING. A LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM WA INTO NRN ID AND WRN MT DURING THE DAY WITH SHALLOW...SHORT-LIVED AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED WEAK CONVECTION. ...CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL... WHILE THE SURFACE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND STABLE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG WILL DEVELOP OVER MO EARLY...AS RAPID COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS AN ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME NEAR 850 MB WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 7 G/KG. STRONG UVVS WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION...AND SOME COULD BE CONVECTIVE. IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR SUGGEST CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR AS WELL. ..JEWELL/BOTHWELL.. 02/17/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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