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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 031954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST MON MAR 03 2014 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DISCUSSION... ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO INCLUDE A SMALL AREA FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN GA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AS NEAR SFC TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S...THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MIGHT BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/03/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014/ ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE BEING A MULTI-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN TX TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. OVER THE PACIFIC NW...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EWD TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES WITH THIS BOUNDARY REACHING THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA 04/12Z. ...DEEP SOUTH TX... THE EARLY PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. ...PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ...CAROLINAS/ERN GA TODAY... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...AND NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A GENERAL TSTM AREA. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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