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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 041606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2014 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST BEING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO TO CNTRL FL PENINSULA. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP SLIGHTLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO THE GULF COAST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE FL PENINSULA SEGMENT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SWD ALONG IT FROM ERN WY TO ERN NM/WRN TX. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ...GULF COAST... DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE TO PROMOTE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...CNTRL ROCKIES... FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/-139W WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTING ACTIVITY WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING ONSHORE AROUND 05/12Z. ..MEAD.. 03/04/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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